Just two points separate the bottom six in the Premier League, while Bournemouth are by no means clear of safety. But who'll be relegated at the end of the season?
Here, we take a detailed look at the battle for survival and consider the key factors which could determine who goes down and who retains their Premier League status…
Standings
Premier League table - bottom seven
| Position | Team | Games played | Goal diff | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14th | Bournemouth | 24 | -12 | 26 |
| 15th | Middlesbrough | 24 | -8 | 21 |
| 16th | Leicester | 24 | -17 | 21 |
| 17th | Swansea | 24 | -25 | 21 |
| 18th | Hull | 24 | -25 | 20 |
| 19th | Crystal Palace | 24 | -13 | 19 |
| 20th | Sunderland | 24 | -18 | 19 |
Despite their recent upturn in form, Sunderland remain rooted to the foot of the Premier League with 19 points from 24 matches, due to their inferior goal difference to struggling Crystal Palace. Hull, meanwhile, are enjoying something of a resurgence under new boss Marco Silva and are up to third from bottom, just a point from safety.
Above Hull are three teams on 21 points - including, incredibly, last season's Premier League winners Leicester. Swansea have revived their survival hopes since Paul Clement took the reins, while Middlesbrough continue to float just above the danger zone. Bournemouth have a six-point cushion but continue to look over their shoulder.
Remaining fixtures
Bottom seven's remaining fixtures
| Bournemouth | Middlesbrough | Leicester | Swansea | Hull | C. Palace | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City (h) | Everton (h) | Swansea (a) | Leicester (h) | Arsenal (a) | Stoke (a) | Southampton (h) |
| West Brom (a) | Palace (a) | Liverpool (h) | Chelsea (a) | Burnley (h) | Middlesbrough (h) | Everton (a) |
| Man Utd (a) | Stoke (a) | Hull (h) | Burnley (h) | Leicester (a) | West Brom (a) | Man City (h) |
| West Ham (h) | Sunderland (h) | Arsenal (a) | Hull (a) | Swansea (h) | Tottenham (h) | Middlesbrough (a) |
| Swansea (h) | Man Utd (h) | West Ham (a) | Bournemouth (a) | Everton (a) | Watford (h) | Burnley (h) |
| Southampton (a) | Swansea (a) | Stoke (h) | Middlesbrough (h) | West Ham (h) | Chelsea (a) | Watford (a) |
| Liverpool (a) | Hull (a) | Sunderland (h) | Tottenham (h) | Middlesbrough (h) | Southampton (a) | Leicester (a) |
| Chelsea (h) | Burnley (h) | Everton (a) | West Ham (a) | Man City (a) | Arsenal (h) | Man Utd (h) |
| Tottenham (a) | Arsenal (h) | Palace (a) | Watford (a) | Stoke (a) | Leicester (h) | West Ham (h) |
| Middlesbrough (h) | Bournemouth (a) | Tottenham (h) | Stoke (h) | Watford (h) | Liverpool (a) | Arsenal (a) |
| Sunderland (a) | Man City (h) | West Brom (a) | Man Utd (a) | Southampton (a) | Burnley (h) | Bournemouth (h) |
| Stoke (h) | Chelsea (a) | Watford (h) | Everton (h) | Sunderland (h) | Man City (a) | Hull (a) |
| Burnley (h) | Southampton (h) | Man City (a) | Sunderland (a) | Palace (a) | Hull (h) | Swansea (h) |
| Leicester (a) | Liverpool (a) | Bournemouth (h) | West Brom (h) | Tottenham (h) | Man Utd (a) | Chelsea (a) |
Bournemouth have four games remaining against the teams below them in the table, split evenly between home and away fixtures. Of their remaining matches, the toughest, according to the current league position of their opponents, come at home, where they have been strong this season, winning 10 more points at the Vitality Stadium than when they've been on the road.
Middlesbrough's form away from home will be crucial to their survival hopes in the final part of the season, as they still have to travel to four of their six rivals at the bottom of the Premier League. Boro have won just once away from the Riverside in this campaign - a key area they must address - although their upcoming home fixture with Sunderland offers an ideal opportunity to put distance between themselves and David Moyes' men.
Toughest fixtures
| Team | Opponent avg rank (home) | Opponent avg rank (away) | Fixtures v bottom seven team (home) | Fixtures v bottom seven team (away) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 9.71 | 10 | 2 | 2 |
| Middlesbrough | 9.29 | 12.14 | 1 | 4 |
| Leicester | 11.43 | 9.57 | 3 | 2 |
| Swansea | 10.14 | 11.14 | 2 | 3 |
| Hull | 12.14 | 10.4 | 3 | 2 |
| Palace | 11 | 6.71 | 3 | 0 |
| Sunderland | 10.57 | 10.14 | 2 | 3 |
Leicester have home advantage during the run-in - teams left to visit the King Power Stadium are on average lower in the Premier League table than the Foxes' remaining away opponents - but a victory at Swansea this weekend would provide a much-needed boost.
Swansea also have three key fixtures away from home, with trips to Hull, Bournemouth and Sunderland likely to prove significant to their Premier League status.
Hull will target home fixtures against relegation rivals Swansea, Middlesbrough and Sunderland but a final-day trip to Crystal Palace could prove to be a thrilling finale to the season.
Crystal Palace were booed off by their own fans following their 4-0 home defeat to Sunderland last weekend, but they'll need their supporters back on side for their next fixture at Selhurst Park because their form there is going to be imperative to their survival chances. They face an extremely tough run of away games between now and the end of the season, including four of the Premier League's top six.
With back-to-back games against Bournemouth, Hull and Swansea, before a final day trip to Chelsea, Sunderland's battle to stay up is set to go right down to the wire.
Bottom seven mini league
Bottom seven mini league
| Teams | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +6 | 14 |
| Sunderland | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | +4 | 12 |
| Palace | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| Bournemouth | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 10 |
| Hull | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| Swansea | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| Leicester | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
The good news for Middlesbrough, who face four away games against fellow strugglers, is that their results versus other teams currently in the bottom seven have been good this season.
Leicester, in contrast, must find a way to profit from their five games against teams in the relegation fight, having managed just eight points from seven such fixtures.
Form
Premier League form table
| PL form rank | Team | Form |
|---|---|---|
| 9th | Swansea | LWLWWL |
| 12th | Hull | DLWLDW |
| 15th | Sunderland | LDLLDW |
| 16th | Bournemouth | WDLDLL |
| 17th | Leicester | WDLLLL |
| 18th | Palace | LLLLWL |
| 20th | Middlesbrough | LDDLDL |
Swansea may have lost to a last-gasp Gabriel Jesus goal on Sunday, but despite their defeat to Manchester City, they are the most in-form team of the bottom seven clubs. Three wins and three defeats from their past six matches puts them ninth in the Premier League form table, a few spots above improving Hull, who have won seven points from Silva's first four games in charge.
Leicester's slide is evident, though, with four straight defeats putting them down in 17th in the Premier League form table, while Middlesbrough, without a win in their last seven league games, are bottom of the pile.
Key players
Sunderland's hopes appear to rest upon star striker Jermain Defoe. The former England man netted his 13th and 14th goals of the campaign in the big win at Palace and, after firing the Black Cats to safety last season, Moyes will hope his main man can do the business again.
Christian Benteke bears a similar burden at Palace, although the former Liverpool forward is yet to find form to match Defoe's exploits, while Alvaro Negredo, with six goals and four assists to his name, will be Middlesbrough's key to success.
At Hull City, new boys Andrea Ranocchia and Alfred N'Diaye will play a vital role, strengthening the spine of the team for the run-in, but Gylfi Sigurdsson (eight goals, seven assists) is Swansea's clear go-to man.
However, Riyad Mahrez and mis-firing Jamie Vardy, so often Leicester's shining lights last season, need to step up after a below-par campaign, while Bournemouth will hope Jack Wilshere and Junior Stanislas continue to have a positive influence on the Cherries' play from midfield.
Injuries
Injury table (according to physioroom.com)
| Team | Injuries |
|---|---|
| Sunderland | 9 |
| Hull | 8 |
| Palace | 8 |
| Bournemouth | 3 |
| Swansea | 2 |
| Middlesbrough | 2 |
| Leicester | 2 |
Bottom of the Premier League but top of the injury table - Moyes has a huge task on his hands at Sunderland. He's without long-term absentees Victor Anichebe, Jan Kirchhoff, Duncan Watmore and Paddy McNair, as well as more recent worries, Adnan Januzaj, John O'Shea and Jack Rodwell.
Hull City also have injury concerns, with centre-backs Michael Dawson and Curtis Davies in the treatment room, while January signing Jeff Schlupp is sidelined for Crystal Palace and Middlesbrough are currently without captain George Friend.
Conclusion
With so few points separating the teams at the bottom of the Premier League, selecting three favourites for the drop isn't easy. But Bournemouth's six-point cushion could prove crucial, while Swansea and Hull will need to maintain their recent upturn in form to pull clear of trouble.
The fixtures haven't fallen kindly for Middlesbrough, and they'll need to arrest their worrying slide - and poor record against fellow strugglers - to earn points away from home at four of their relegation rivals, while the goals of Sunderland striker Defoe and performances of Leicester duo Mahrez and Vardy will be key to their respective survival chances.
As for Crystal Palace, they need to make Selhurst Park a fortress again if they are to stay up, with three rivals for the drop coming to their south London home.
EmoticonEmoticon